A Wise Fool

Joining the 2012 Herd I thought I might as well throw my hat in the ring with some predictions, since its fun, and annoying at the same time. Let’s see how inaccurate I can be. President Obama wins re-election easily over Mitt Romney or crushes Newt Gingrich Democrats win control of the House of Representatives; …

Investment Approach and Style “Everyone has the brain to pick stocks, few have the stomach” I do not remember exactly who originally said those words, it may be Peter Lynch, but I am not sure about that. I pursue an investment approach non-traditional blend of growth and value orientated investment philosophy, which provides the flexibility …

Fed Stock Market Valuation Model Irrational Exuberance? Probably the most well known investment model, is the stock market valuation model, also known as the Federal Reserve Valuation Model, or FSVM for short. The model came to light roughly around the time Alan Greenspan used the famous “irrational exuberance” phrase, to describe the current levels of …

Hybrid ETF Portfolio Experiment – Active+Passive The index (or passive) ETF industry has exploded in the past 10 years, and now has billions (perhaps trillion+) dollars in assets. One of the major appeals is being able to trade the ETF like a stock on an exchange, another being low cost. Since most ETF products are …

Stock Screener Performance Update The table (second below) has the full details of each stock screener pick and their return comparison to the SP500.  The percent of picks beating the SP500 has slipped from the low 40 percent to just under 35 percent. The return of those picks is running at a whopping 30 percent. …

Virtual Mutual Fund Managment Since 2002 I have been testing my personal investment methodologies on the Marketocracy virtual fund portfolio site.  I have had a decent track record since that time, beating the major indexes by 5-10 percent annually. The virtual funds that I have focused most of my attention have been those that are …

Investment Performance Update for March 2012 Hello again, and another month has gone by in 2012.  It was a good month for my investment performance, and stock returns in general…again, which is starting to make me both exited and nervous. This really “feels” like prior to the 90′s take off for the economy and market…or …

New Stock Screener Picks Below are the list of new stock screener picks, as of 03/09/2012, but I have just gotten around to publishing them now. The new stock screener picks will be included in the next monthly update, as well as the existing picks, some of which will be retired.  Its a diverse selection …

Experimental ETF Performance – April 2012 Hello again, As you can see in the table below, the model funds ETF performance have done pretty well YTD. All four model portfolios are beating the approximately +11 percent return of the S&P500. The “since inception comparison has held up well, with two portfolios beating the index, one matching, and …

Two-tier Euro? I had written the below originally as an explanation for selling my Proshares Ultra Short Euro, back in April of 2010. One premise being that if a currency is considered a more secure asset than a bond, can you treat it somewhat like a bond? The other idea that sometimes you need to …